MOTR Research Headlines
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Out Puzzling the Puzzle Master?”
Highlights Volatility tempts us to override our systematic process, but models show market structure remains too “not bearish” to justify that fear. Index declines fit the expectations we laid out last week (here and here) as normal bull‑market behavior, not structural breakdown. ...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Weakness Into Support as Leadership Shuffles.”
Highlights Short-term conditions weakened last week, with the U.S. Risk Gauge’s ST gauge moving deeper into "Mixed". Leadership shifted significantly, with the top four sectors reshuffling and Energy emerging as the new leader. Many key MOTR Groups remain structurally...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Changing Diapers, Not Plans.”
Highlights S&P is sliding toward its projected Monthly Support Zone for March as detailed in Monday's WMR, but structure still argues for responsive buying, not panic selling. Volatility, momentum, and breadth are likely to diverge on any further lows, while all Risk Gauge timeframes...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Now is no Time to Forecast the Unforecastable.”
Highlights Forecasting is nearly impossible in calm periods, so during wartime, disciplined attention to market signals becomes even more essential. It is critical to understand market structure before a shock, not predicting immediate post‑shock direction. Regime identification guides...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Putting Capital in Goods.”
Highlights February ended with weakness in Mega-Caps, as MAGS had its worst month since March 2025, weighing on SPY and QQQ, while Mid-Caps continued to lead with MDY building on January’s momentum. The U.S. Risk Gauge downticked to “Mixed” in the short-term at month-end,...
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The Weekly MOTR Report (WMR)
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Out Puzzling the Puzzle Master?”
Highlights Volatility tempts us to override our systematic process, but models show market structure remains too “not...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Now is no Time to Forecast the Unforecastable.”
Highlights Forecasting is nearly impossible in calm periods, so during wartime, disciplined attention to market signals...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “The Media is not the Market.”
Highlights Media narratives highlight risks, but market behavior shows resilience and continued underlying strength...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG)
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Weakness Into Support as Leadership Shuffles.”
Highlights Short-term conditions weakened last week, with the U.S. Risk Gauge’s ST gauge moving deeper into...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Putting Capital in Goods.”
Highlights February ended with weakness in Mega-Caps, as MAGS had its worst month since March 2025, weighing on SPY...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Leadership Stays Steady.”
Highlights Sector rankings were largely unchanged last week, with the U.S. Risk Gauge nearing full Risk On and...
Charting My Interruption (CMI)
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “New Country ETF Risk Gauge Max Risk On.”
Highlights The Dow’s more than century‑long two‑thirds annual win rate sets a naturally bullish base case absent...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “At Support, Leadership Oversold.”
"At Support, Leadership Oversold." Today's CMI offers a quick tactical update on market location and breadth. We have been...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “What the Fractal, Bitcoin?”
Highlights Bitcoin’s current top fractally mirrors the 2022 peak with similar clear momentum divergences. Our...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC)
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Bullish, but Head on a Swivel.”
"Bullish, but Head on a Swivel." Conditions remain supportive enough to stay engaged on the long side. Leadership is...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Ok for now, but potential rumblings of worse things to come.”
"Ok for now, but potential rumblings of worse things to come." Friday's reversal in leading 'New Era' industries was...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Our Annual Forecast: There will be no forecast.”
"Our Annual Forecast: There will be no forecast." With Wall Street strategists publishing their market forecasts for...