MOTR Research Headlines
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Tension Resolved, Which May be a Bad Thing.”
Highlights Through the lens of our process, all that has changed after two days of strength is that we have gone from "broken and oversold" to "broken and overbought". The behavioral bias will be to chase this strength higher, but it was for this very reason that we wrote about this outcome...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Understand the ‘What’, Care Less About the ‘Why’.”
Highlights The MOTR Risk Gauge continues to deteriorate for both the US and the globe, ex-US. We can do one of two things with this information: 1) act on it, or 2) wait until we have identified the drivers behind the weakness and understand why it is happening. In the past few months,...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Still Technically Broken Despite Rally.”
Highlights After rallying over 13% from recent lows, the S&P has settled in with a more than 11% gain since April 7th. While this has many gaining in confidence that the worst is behind us, that optimism is not confirmed by the data. By our work, all we have done is go from "broken...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Still Defensive, But Our Eyes Are Open.”
Highlights Our best-case scenario is that the market retests, if not undercuts, last week's lows before we can consider looking for an end to this bear market. On the downside, 4500 remains our target for the S&P, where the yearly Momentum Zone and our fair value based on trend earnings...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing.”
Highlights Despite all the noise, yesterday's rally was more symptomatic of a near death patient convulsing on an operating table in the emergency room than one comfortably sedated in recovery. The Risk Gauge remains precariously perched on the ledge of "Risk Off" and the vast majority of...
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Charting My Interruption (CMI)
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “What a Market Bottom Might Look Like.”
Highlights With volatility spiking and markets under pressure, the two most frequent questions we receive are "how low...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Key Support Broken, Fortifying Bear Case.”
Highlights The key 550 support for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) we highlighted in last week's webinar (here) was gapped...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Up is Good, but Only if Up ‘Does’ Good.”
Highlights Cyclical sectors are very oversold, reflecting investor angst with respect to today's impending tariff...
The Weekly MOTR Report
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “You Don’t Know the Future, Only the Present.”
Highlights Our Risk Gauge has down ticked into "Risk Off" in the monthly (MT) timeframe, confirming what it has been...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “A Message to Long-Term Investors.”
Highlights I believe we have enough evidence on hand to eliminate the "Risk On" scenario, leaving us to prepare for...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “No Longer Oversold, But Still Broken.”
Highlights The market has gone from being broken and very oversold to broken but no longer oversold. Unable to...
Monthly MOTR
Checkup Video Series
Monthly MOTR Checkup Video (MMC): “A Rare Moment in Stock Market History.”
"A Rare Moment in Stock Market History." There have been many extremes to worry about the past few years, but I have...
Monthly MOTR Checkup Video (MMC): “Ruh Roh, Raggy!!”
"Ruh Roh, Raggy!!" Scooby Doo's phrase "Ruh Roh, Raggy!!" is an expression of alarm or concern, usually expressed in...
Monthly MOTR Checkup Video (MMC): “Dream the Impossible Dream.”
"Dream the Impossible Dream." While most investors and "experts" are focused on what is likely to go wrong in 2025, Mr....