MOTR Research Headlines
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Leadership ‘Emerging’ in a Good Way.”
Highlights Markets are inherently unforecastable; emergence makes future outcomes unknowable in advance. Survival in complex systems comes from monitoring for and adapting to relevant marginal changes, not predicting them. Recent leadership rotations remain non‑threatening; risk lies...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Materials Steals the #1 Spot.”
Highlights Despite a quiet week from the major indices, continued market broadening remains intact as mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks pushed to new weekly all-time highs, confirming expansion beyond the mega-cap space. The Risk Gauge remains firmly in Risk On across all three timeframes,...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Warning Shots from Chemicals & Staples?”
Highlights We monitor marginal shifts in leadership to adapt exposures gradually rather than making abrupt regime bets. Recent rotations include improving Biotech, weakening MAG7, renewed strength in Quantum, Crypto, Clean Energy, and late‑cycle groups like Transports, Metals, and...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Risk Gauge in ‘Risk-On’ as Small Caps Emerge.”
Highlights Risk gauges are fully 'Risk‑On', with both large‑ and small‑cap indices at new highs. Small‑cap leadership is re‑emerging, reversing the post‑2023 banking‑crisis downtrend. Although MAG7 concentration sits just under 35%, we expect relative—not...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Finding Pullbacks in Long-Term Leadership.”
Highlights Market breadth continues to improve as large-, mid-, small-, and micro-caps make new highs, while Tech and the MAG7 lag, reinforcing a rotation away from just the Mega caps. Healthcare is strengthening and now sits just one tick away from full 'Risk On', with all four Healthcare...
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The Weekly MOTR Report (WMR)
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Leadership ‘Emerging’ in a Good Way.”
Highlights Markets are inherently unforecastable; emergence makes future outcomes unknowable in advance. Survival...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Risk Gauge in ‘Risk-On’ as Small Caps Emerge.”
Highlights Risk gauges are fully 'Risk‑On', with both large‑ and small‑cap indices at new highs. Small‑cap...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “New Age Narratives vs Old Age Setups.”
Highlights Our interpretation of the data leaves us with the same view despite the new year: we are in a bubble that...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG)
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Materials Steals the #1 Spot.”
Highlights Despite a quiet week from the major indices, continued market broadening remains intact as mid-, small-, and...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Finding Pullbacks in Long-Term Leadership.”
Highlights Market breadth continues to improve as large-, mid-, small-, and micro-caps make new highs, while Tech and...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “New Year, Same Leadership.”
Highlights Rather than anchoring to a full year outlook, our approach is built around responding to market conditions...
Charting My Interruption (CMI)
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “‘New Era’ Leaders Trending, Very Oversold.”
Highlights Despite the recent volatility, 'New Era' industries are still in uptrends broadly speaking, with very...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Mo, Mo, Mo!! Merry Christmas!!”
Headlines Santa’s rally is here, but he’s flipping the script and handing out the biggest gifts to small and micro...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Two Opposed Ideas, One Action Plan.”
Highlights The market continues to flash major divergences, with the S&P near all-time highs, making the ability...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC)
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Our Annual Forecast: There will be no forecast.”
"Our Annual Forecast: There will be no forecast." With Wall Street strategists publishing their market forecasts for...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Navigating Complexity with Master Oogway.”
"Navigating Complexity with Master Oogway." Another month passes by without resolution to the increasingly fragile...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “The Battle of Narratives–and the Need to Act.”
"The Battle of Narratives--and the Need to Act." With so many compelling, yet opposed narratives competing for our...