MOTR Research Headlines
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Now is no Time to Forecast the Unforecastable.”
Highlights Forecasting is nearly impossible in calm periods, so during wartime, disciplined attention to market signals becomes even more essential. It is critical to understand market structure before a shock, not predicting immediate post‑shock direction. Regime identification guides...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Putting Capital in Goods.”
Highlights February ended with weakness in Mega-Caps, as MAGS had its worst month since March 2025, weighing on SPY and QQQ, while Mid-Caps continued to lead with MDY building on January’s momentum. The U.S. Risk Gauge downticked to “Mixed” in the short-term at month-end,...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Bullish, but Head on a Swivel.”
"Bullish, but Head on a Swivel." Conditions remain supportive enough to stay engaged on the long side. Leadership is healthy, even though speculative, late cycle, and increasingly more global (emerging markets in particular). Related market action doesn’t yet quite support a decisive move away...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “The Media is not the Market.”
Highlights Media narratives highlight risks, but market behavior shows resilience and continued underlying strength across most stocks. Breadth and leadership trends indicate more 'good' than 'bad', with weakness limited to a few admittedly important but thus far isolated groups. Most...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Leadership Stays Steady.”
Highlights Sector rankings were largely unchanged last week, with the U.S. Risk Gauge nearing full Risk On and leadership concentrated in Industrials, Materials, Health Care, and Energy. Strength within Industrials was reinforced by the Transports MOTR Group moving to 6th out of 28,...
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The Weekly MOTR Report (WMR)
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Now is no Time to Forecast the Unforecastable.”
Highlights Forecasting is nearly impossible in calm periods, so during wartime, disciplined attention to market signals...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “The Media is not the Market.”
Highlights Media narratives highlight risks, but market behavior shows resilience and continued underlying strength...
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Anxiety Induced (AI) Selling in Software.”
Highlights The MOTR Software & Services Group has performed so poorly that it ranks worst in both our very short...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG)
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Putting Capital in Goods.”
Highlights February ended with weakness in Mega-Caps, as MAGS had its worst month since March 2025, weighing on SPY...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Leadership Stays Steady.”
Highlights Sector rankings were largely unchanged last week, with the U.S. Risk Gauge nearing full Risk On and...
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Rotation Across the Board.”
Highlights Last week brought significant rotation across sectors along with notable developments within the Risk...
Charting My Interruption (CMI)
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “New Country ETF Risk Gauge Max Risk On.”
Highlights The Dow’s more than century‑long two‑thirds annual win rate sets a naturally bullish base case absent...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “At Support, Leadership Oversold.”
"At Support, Leadership Oversold." Today's CMI offers a quick tactical update on market location and breadth. We have been...
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “What the Fractal, Bitcoin?”
Highlights Bitcoin’s current top fractally mirrors the 2022 peak with similar clear momentum divergences. Our...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC)
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Ok for now, but potential rumblings of worse things to come.”
"Ok for now, but potential rumblings of worse things to come." Friday's reversal in leading 'New Era' industries was...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Our Annual Forecast: There will be no forecast.”
"Our Annual Forecast: There will be no forecast." With Wall Street strategists publishing their market forecasts for...
Monthly MOTR Checkup (MMC): “Navigating Complexity with Master Oogway.”
"Navigating Complexity with Master Oogway." Another month passes by without resolution to the increasingly fragile...