Highlights
- We have recently advised two things: the market was very oversold and should rally, and if that rally checked defensive boxes, we would listen and make defensive adjustments.
- Since the oversold condition in early Sep, the S&P has hit new highs, but leadership has been dominated by defensive groups, with most pro-risk cyclical and growth groups still languishing in downtrends.
- These conditions match what we saw in late '24/early'25, as well as early '26, and we expect a similar outcome (-10. . .
