“When Turkeys Fly”
Despite popular belief, turkeys can fly, just not for long distances. They can’t fly long distances due to their body weight and wing design. They will never fly long distances until those change. In the meantime, they can skillfully evade predators due to their keen eyesight, which is among the best in the animal kingdom.
Similarly, investors believe that crashes happen “all of a sudden”, but they don’t. Market internals have to change to allow a -10% decline to morph into a -20% or more decline. Our Risk Gauge is our eyesight into the surrounding investment landscape, and for now, we see no menacing bears lurking in the woods.
