Highlights
- Credit spreads have been widening since early October, suggesting that Mr. Market is growing uneasy with risk.
- Despite wider credit spreads, the S&P is less than -3% from its all-time highs scored in late October. In prior disconnects like this, credit spreads have won the debate, with stocks eventually rolling over.
- Polymarket betting odds for a 25 bps rate cut in December have been collapsing since equities peaked...coincidence?
- All in, these conditions support our view that
