“The Great Shell Game.”

The market is a shell game, getting investors to focus on the empty ‘S&P shell’, when in fact the truth is in the shell containing relative drivers and market structure.

Today, investors are focused on the fact that the S&P is almost all the way back to its highs, yet the truth is that market structure remains broken, and leadership remains very defensive.

Additionally, based on history, investors should actually expect the ‘S&P shell’ to rally this much, as it has during every major market top since the 1960s.

History has taught us that rallies of this magnitude with broken structure and poor leadership as a backdrop do not last.