“Tactical Trend’s Balancing Act.”

As we head into the month of July, the short-term timeframe retains possession of the ball, driving the market higher. From here, the short-term timeframe will either score a touchdown (fix the still broken higher timeframes) or fumble the ball (fail to do so). Either way, it will eventually give up possession, and what it accomplishes between now and then will determine what lies ahead for the stock market.

A touchdown will set the stage for a strong second half, putting us back into buy the dips camp, where we had been since early 2023.

A fumble will set the stage for another meaningful downdraft, like earlier in the year, which triggered our first short exposure since the SIVB bank crisis in March 2023.

As it stands today, the short-term is still okay, and so we are still long, with only a small short position currently engaged. That said, divergences are beginning to materialize once again, so we are ready to expand our short exposure should the short-term trend inflect to negative.