Despite what many prognosticators and news outlets would have us believe, the market is not at all ignoring the ongoing macro challenges…this is not a bull market.
Monthly MOTR Check-Up (MMC): “Not as much of a tug-of-war as it seems”
September 15th, 2023
Related Market Insights
Some of Our Latest Commentary
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Risk Gauge Abandons ‘Risk-On’ in all Timeframes.”
Highlights The MOTR Risk Gauge continues to weaken across timeframes, signaling rising fragility and a cautious near‑term market outlook. Tactical
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “LT Loses Risk On, ST Moves to Risk Off.”
Highlights The U.S. Risk Gauge deteriorated last week, with Long Term slipping to Mixed and Short Term falling to Risk
Charting My Interruption (CMI): “Losing Bull Structure, but not yet Bearish.”
Highlights Short‑term market structure is deteriorating, with banks showing especially severe downtrends. Credit spreads flashing warnings as CCC stays elevated
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Worst Case Scenario ‘too’ Quickly Met.”
Highlights The S&P met our worst‑case path last week, a little too rapidly for our liking. Failure to rebound by
Weekly Risk Gauge (WRG): “Cyclical Sectors in ST Risk Off.”
Highlights Despite additional weakness and only 46% of stocks above their 200-day moving average, the U.S. Risk Gauge remains unchanged,
Weekly MOTR Report (WMR): “Out Puzzling the Puzzle Master?”
Highlights Volatility tempts us to override our systematic process, but models show market structure remains too “not bearish” to justify