On Thursday, the spread between the percent bullish and percent bearish respondents in the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment survey exceeded 20% for the first time since the bear market began in 2022 (Figure 1, red arrow). This of course has many prognosticators worried that investors are just "too" bullish given the backdrop of high inflation, tight fed policy, impending recession, historic banking crisis, tense geo-politics, a tragic war, etc.
However, the data. . .