Charting My Interruption (CMI): “New Country ETF Risk Gauge Max Risk On.”

Highlights

• The Dow’s more than century‑long two‑thirds annual win rate sets a naturally bullish base case absent clear, compelling bearish evidence.
• Inflation and Fed policy overwhelmingly shape annual market outcomes, while geopolitical conditions matter far less than commonly assumed.
• High inflation and tightening regimes depress win rates; moderate inflation and easing regimes materially improve them.
• Because forecasting regimes is unreliable, our practical edge comes from

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